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China
Continues Strong Upward Growth, Consumption of
World Resources
Although China's GDP grew at a slightly lower
rate in 2005 than 2004 (9.9 percent vs. 10.1
percent, respectively), the continued strong
demand is impacting world supplies of many
basic chemicals. China's total GDP reached
$2.3 trillion (Euro 1.8 trillion, Rmb 18.2
trillion) in 2005, possibly allowing the
country to overtake the U.K. as the fourth
largest economy. Industrial output climbed
11.4 percent, exports grew 28.4 percent, and
imports increased by 17.6 percent.
With regard to chemicals, imports of Naphtha
climbed 586 percent and Ethylene imports
doubled. Imports of most polymers increased,
but those for low-density Polyethylene (ldPE),
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and Polystyrene (PS)
declined in 2005. Demand for paraxylene (PX)
was up 41.5 percent, and imports of fiber
intermediates such as Purified terephthalic
acid (PTA) and Monoethylene glycol (MEG) grew
around 15 percent.
At the beginning of the year, the Chinese
government set a target growth rate of 8
percent in an attempt to prevent the economy
from running out of control, a level that was
obviously exceeded. For 2006, the government
is trying to encourage more consumption and
reduce its reliance on overseas markets and
investments for growth.
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Polycarbonate
Market Hopeful Because of Rising Bisphenol-A
Prices
Rising Bisphenol-A (BPA) spot prices have
Northeast Asian Polycarbonate (PC) producers
hopeful of a rebound in the PC market. Strong
feedstock costs and the expectation of higher
prices following the Chinese New Year led to
increases in BPA prices of 5-8 percent.
Overall PC prices are down significantly since
reaching a five year high in May 2005. BPA is
a key raw material for PC, and rising BPA
prices may lead to higher prices for PC.
However, supply and demand are fairly balanced
at this point.
Many are concerned, too, about three new PC
facilities expected to come on stream in
Northeast Asia in 2006. Bayer MaterialScinet
has a 100,000 tonne/year plant in Caojing,
Shanghai that should start up in the second
quarter. Chi-Mei is adding a second 75,000
tonne/year line in Tainan, Taiwan, that is
reported to begin operations in the third
quarter. Lastly, Teijin Chemicals' 50,000
tonne/year line at Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province,
China, is predicted to come on stream in
October. It is hoped that additional demand in
China, which is projected to grow at 8 percent
annually, will consume much of this new
capacity.
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